The EC8D reproduction
The state values reproduce the collation result for the four named parties. Grade B reflects a corroborated table without a direct scanned EC8D form in the current register.
Final state result · North West · Two-layer record
Kebbi 2023 presidential election result
The reproduced Kebbi EC8D collation records PDP first with 285,175 votes and APC second with 248,088. The declared margin was 37,087 votes. Mundx presents that state declaration beside, but never merged with, a four-party polling-unit research layer.
Result of record: the reproduced state collation. Research evidence: selected PU observations for APC, LP, PDP and NNPP under a documented policy.
Kebbi reconciliation
Declared totals beside selected PU observations
The declared four-party collation totals 548,983. The canonical PU layer totals 479,960, which is 87.4% of the declared figure and 69,023 below it.
| Party / scope | Declared collation | PU rollup | Declared minus PU | PU as % declared |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| APC | 248,088 | 217,688 | +30,400 | 87.7% |
| LP | 10,682 | 9,739 | +943 | 91.2% |
| PDP | 285,175 | 241,794 | +43,381 | 84.8% |
| NNPP | 5,038 | 10,739 | -5,701 | 213.2% |
| Four-party total | 548,983 | 479,960 | +69,023 | 87.4% |
The difference is descriptive, not causal. “Declared minus canonical PU” equals +69,023 for the four tracked parties. It must not be relabelled as missing votes, invalid votes or fraud: the two layers were created at different stages, and the available record does not establish a single cause.
Local evidence
Polling-unit rollups across 21 Kebbi LGAs
These rows are calculated from selected polling-unit records, not declared LGA collation totals. APC leads 8 and PDP leads 13 of the 21 local rollups. Each LGA name opens its permanent place page with ward and polling-unit context.
| LGA | PU leader | APC | LP | PDP | NNPP | Four-party | PUs represented |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aliero | PDP | 6,581 | 155 | 12,404 | 98 | 19,238 | 92 / 92 |
| Arewa | PDP | 14,482 | 28 | 14,554 | 231 | 29,295 | 214 / 214 |
| Argungu | PDP | 10,590 | 140 | 22,304 | 322 | 33,356 | 246 / 246 |
| Augie | PDP | 10,756 | 55 | 11,446 | 115 | 22,372 | 141 / 141 |
| Bagudo | APC | 16,172 | 49 | 11,237 | 116 | 27,574 | 226 / 226 |
| Birnin Kebbi | PDP | 22,557 | 1,872 | 30,227 | 843 | 55,499 | 385 / 385 |
| Bunza | PDP | 7,933 | 18 | 13,183 | 100 | 21,234 | 141 / 141 |
| Dandi | APC | 11,649 | 66 | 9,956 | 1,080 | 22,751 | 190 / 190 |
| Fakai | APC | 7,422 | 440 | 5,475 | 187 | 13,524 | 109 / 109 |
| Gwandu | PDP | 8,731 | 6 | 10,890 | 93 | 19,720 | 156 / 156 |
| Jega | PDP | 9,441 | 633 | 13,248 | 1,547 | 24,869 | 232 / 232 |
| Kalgo | PDP | 5,990 | 39 | 9,517 | 77 | 15,623 | 104 / 104 |
| Koko/Besse | PDP | 7,975 | 138 | 8,047 | 79 | 16,239 | 191 / 191 |
| Maiyama | APC | 11,014 | 32 | 9,110 | 2,856 | 23,012 | 172 / 172 |
| Ngaski | PDP | 9,573 | 308 | 11,221 | 88 | 21,190 | 128 / 128 |
| Sakaba | APC | 7,221 | 864 | 3,438 | 303 | 11,826 | 98 / 98 |
| Shanga | APC | 8,590 | 48 | 7,523 | 650 | 16,811 | 144 / 144 |
| Suru | PDP | 10,637 | 93 | 11,981 | 139 | 22,850 | 207 / 207 |
| Wasagu/Danko | APC | 10,570 | 1,847 | 5,698 | 738 | 18,853 | 229 / 229 |
| Yauri | PDP | 10,984 | 431 | 13,000 | 240 | 24,655 | 138 / 138 |
| Zuru | APC | 8,820 | 2,477 | 7,335 | 837 | 19,469 | 200 / 200 |
Largest local rollups
Five LGAs in Kebbi context
The notes restate the largest local aggregations in prose so their leader, margin and evidence coverage remain legible outside the table. A PU-layer lead is not an official LGA declaration.
- Birnin Kebbi: PDP leads the selected four-party rollup with 30,227 votes, 7,670 ahead of APC. The local total is 55,499 across 385 represented units. The selected source layer represents every polling unit in the inventory.
- Argungu: PDP leads the selected four-party rollup with 22,304 votes, 11,714 ahead of APC. The local total is 33,356 across 246 represented units. The selected source layer represents every polling unit in the inventory.
- Arewa: PDP leads the selected four-party rollup with 14,554 votes, 72 ahead of APC. The local total is 29,295 across 214 represented units. The selected source layer represents every polling unit in the inventory.
- Bagudo: APC leads the selected four-party rollup with 16,172 votes, 4,935 ahead of PDP. The local total is 27,574 across 226 represented units. The selected source layer represents every polling unit in the inventory.
- Jega: PDP leads the selected four-party rollup with 13,248 votes, 3,807 ahead of APC. The local total is 24,869 across 232 represented units. The selected source layer represents every polling unit in the inventory.
Reading the Kebbi record
One contest, two evidence layers
The canonical PU layer
All 3,743 polling units in the inventory have a selected four-party observation. Representation does not authenticate each observation, restore the other fourteen parties or reproduce later collation decisions.
The LGA evidence directory
Birnin Kebbi has the largest local rollup at 55,499. In Arewa, PDP leads APC by 72 in the closest proportional margin.
Coverage needs a denominator. The least complete local record is Aliero at 100.0% of its inventory. Cite represented and inventory counts when an LGA has unresolved records. Full representation still does not make the rollup an official declaration.
Questions this page answers
Kebbi result notes
Who led Kebbi in the declared result?
PDP led with 285,175 votes. APC followed on 248,088, a margin of 37,087. The four tracked parties total 548,983; that subtotal is not the complete eighteen-party vote.
What does the local pattern show?
APC leads 8 and PDP leads 13 of the 21 LGA rollups. State-wide, PDP leads the PU layer with 241,794 of 479,960 four-party votes, 24,106 ahead of APC. This does not revise the declared leader.
Why can the declared and PU totals differ?
EC8D is a state collation product. Mundx selects complete four-party PU observations, prioritising CCIJ records and then Mark Essien fallbacks. Scope, availability, transcription and later collation steps can differ. The comparison identifies questions; it does not prove a cause.
How should this page be cited?
Use this permanent URL for the Kebbi declaration and comparison. Name the layer, year and review date. Cite an LGA place record for a local PU claim, and do not call its PU leader a declared winner without a traceable local collation source.
Provenance
What is official, and what Mundx calculated
The declared layer comes from INEC's result collection and a contemporaneous reproduction of the collation table. It is a collation product, not a sum recreated by Mundx.
Mundx's second layer is a four-party aggregation of selected polling-unit observations. It applies policy all-complete-ccij-first-v1: complete CCIJ records take precedence, then complete Mark Essien records fill remaining units.
- INEC 2023 presidential IReV record.
- State/FCT collation reproduction.
- 176,409 represented units from an inventory of 176,846; 437 remain unresolved nationally.
Canonical PU policy all-complete-ccij-first-v1 · CCIJ commit e38e3bc9a22a
Reuse boundary. Mundx Analytics confirms permission to publish and redistribute the source-derived records in this release. No standard open-data licence or third-party bulk-reuse terms are specified.
Published by Mundx Analytics · reviewed by Mundx Analytics Data Team on 22 September 2026 · official sources retrieved 2026-08-20.