MundxAnalytics

Free 2027 election simulator

Path to Aso Rock

Can your candidate actually win Nigeria? Start with a current-alignment model built from the declared 2023 result, confirmed 2027 tickets and today’s party map. Change every assumption and test both parts of the maths.

2
tests to passLead the national voteReach 25% in at least 25 of 37 states/FCT units
Model assumptions
Political alignment · 26 August 20262027 is not a four-party replay of 2023.

Obi and Kwankwaso now share the NDC ticket. Atiku leads ADC. APC controls 31 governorships. The model reallocates 2023 support through those changes, but never assumes that a governor carries every voter into a new party.

Ten-second path

Who do you want to test?

Pick a ticket. Mundx will calculate its smallest route; you can then challenge every assumption.

Live scenario

Can you get the votes and the spread?

2027 current-alignment baseline

National turnout lever

What if more Nigerians vote?

Move turnout away from the roughly 27% 2023 baseline, then decide how additional voters divide.

27%modelled turnout

Additional votes are distributed across states using Mundx’s 2023 polling-unit rollup of 88.6 million registered voters, then divided between tickets using your controls. That register rollup has partial and form-transcription limitations; it is not presented as a new official INEC register.

Nigeria by state + FCT

Choose a state to move support or change turnout.

Interactive Nigeria election scenario map Each state is coloured by the candidate currently leading. Select a state to change its scenario.
Leader has 25%+Leader below 25%

Scenario audit

Distance from the alignment baseline

Model methodology

Political reality, without fake precision.

Path to Aso Rock is a scenario simulator, not a Mundx election forecast or opinion poll. Scenarios are created by users from historical election data and hypothetical assumptions. Only INEC declares election results.

Candidate continuityMost of Obi’s 2023 LP support begins with the Obi–Kwankwaso NDC ticket. Most of Atiku’s 2023 PDP support begins with Atiku’s ADC ticket.
Alliance effectMost 2023 NNPP support begins with NDC because Kwankwaso is the running mate. Kano is treated separately because its governor moved from NNPP to APC.
Governor machineryAPC receives a limited organisational transfer in states whose governors defected. Voters are not assigned wholesale to their governor’s new party.
Residual partiesThe 2027 PDP ticket retains a minority of the old PDP coalition. Votes for the other 2023 parties remain aggregated rather than silently disappearing.
Turnout sensitivityThe national lever is state-weighted using 2023 registered-voter rollups. New-voter party allocation remains an explicit user assumption, not a demographic prediction.

The source layer uses declared 2023 state results for APC, PDP, LP and NNPP, plus an aggregate for other parties. Turnout denominators come from 176,409 canonical polling-unit observations: 23.3 million accredited and 88.6 million registered, with 437 Abia units unresolved and known transcription limitations. No youth or age model is shown because Mundx does not currently hold an authoritative state-level age dataset. The national APC source total includes the documented 10,929-vote Kano EC8D(A) transfer adjustment. Current-ticket and governor data are effective 26 August 2026. Every modelled transfer is an assumption, not an observed vote or Mundx prediction.