LP took 88% of one-party polling units. Most sat in the South East.
This briefing counts polling units in the 2023 presidential IReV record where one of APC, LP, PDP or NNPP took 90%, 95%, 99% or 100% of that four-party vote. Units with fewer than 50 four-party votes are left out, so a 90% result is at least 45 votes to 5, not a handful of ballots.
of four-party votes
9.6 times fewer than LP
are in the South East
came from those units
Who held them
The one-party boxes were an LP set, not an APC set
A unit is counted once, at the highest threshold it meets. 100% means the other three parties are recorded as zero. Shares use APC, LP, PDP and NNPP only.
| Candidate | 90%+ | 95%+ | 99%+ | 100% | Share of 95%+ set | % of that candidate’s national vote |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peter Obi (LP) | 11,894 | 7,657 | 2,528 | 1,699 | 87.9% | 20.9% |
| Bola Tinubu (APC) | 1,730 | 799 | 280 | 211 | 9.2% | 2.1% |
| Atiku Abubakar (PDP) | 537 | 214 | 73 | 47 | 2.5% | 0.8% |
| Rabiu Kwankwaso (NNPP) | 95 | 39 | 12 | 11 | 0.4% | 0.3% |
Universe: 119,901 polling units with 50 or more four-party votes, out of 176,409 units in the file. 8,709 units meet the 95%+ test. Tinubu still won the largest number of polling units overall; only 1.7% of APC’s unique unit wins were 95%+ shutouts, against 21.5% of LP’s.
Where they sit
The South East ran a different presidential election
Five states hold 11% of eligible polling units and 78% of the 95%+ set. Inside the South East, 53% of eligible units are 95%+ monopolies. In the other 32 states the rate is 1.8%.
| Zone | Eligible units | 95%+ units | Rate | APC | LP | PDP | NNPP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| South East | 12,758 | 6,806 | 53% | 84 | 6,690 | 17 | 15 |
| South South | 17,482 | 657 | 3.8% | 124 | 477 | 55 | 1 |
| North Central | 21,658 | 408 | 1.9% | 145 | 250 | 12 | 1 |
| South West | 25,704 | 339 | 1.3% | 195 | 121 | 22 | 1 |
| North East | 14,969 | 302 | 2.0% | 152 | 82 | 68 | 0 |
| North West | 27,330 | 197 | 0.7% | 99 | 37 | 40 | 21 |
Anambra: 2,556 of 3,135 eligible units (82%) are 95%+ one-party boxes, almost all LP. Enugu: 1,850 of 2,846 (65%). APC’s densest pocket is Mafa, Borno (59 of 99). NNPP’s 39 units are mostly in Kano.
| State | Eligible | 95%+ | Rate | APC | LP | PDP | NNPP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anambra | 3,135 | 2,556 | 82% | 3 | 2,547 | 0 | 6 |
| Enugu | 2,846 | 1,850 | 65% | 0 | 1,847 | 1 | 2 |
| Abia | 2,205 | 957 | 43% | 7 | 935 | 15 | 0 |
| Imo | 2,558 | 862 | 34% | 51 | 804 | 1 | 6 |
| Ebonyi | 2,014 | 581 | 29% | 23 | 557 | 0 | 1 |
| Rivers | 3,184 | 317 | 10% | 93 | 215 | 9 | 0 |
| Lagos | 9,621 | 184 | 1.9% | 65 | 118 | 1 | 0 |
| Delta | 3,342 | 136 | 4.1% | 12 | 97 | 27 | 0 |
| Borno | 2,811 | 129 | 4.6% | 121 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Edo | 3,511 | 127 | 3.6% | 0 | 124 | 2 | 1 |
The next states on the list are Benue (108), Plateau (103) and Taraba (92). Sixteen local governments have at least 80% of eligible units at 95%+; fifteen of those sixteen are in Anambra, Enugu or Abia. Onitsha South, Nnewi North and Enugu North are each above 93%.
Method
How a one-party polling unit is defined
The test is added on top of the 2023 presidential IReV polling-unit file. Vote totals on those units are not changed.
Start from the published unit
The dataset has one row for each of 176,409 polling units, with votes for APC, LP, PDP and NNPP.
Use the four-party total as the denominator
Major-party vote here is APC + LP + PDP + NNPP. Other parties are out of scope, matching the other 2023 briefings.
Drop units with fewer than 50 four-party votes
119,901 units remain. They hold 97% of national four-party votes. A 90% result then requires at least 45 votes for the leader.
Score the leading candidate’s share
Share is that candidate’s votes divided by the four-party total. Thresholds are nested: a 100% unit is also a 95%+ unit.
Check units where votes exceed accredited voters
701 of the 8,709 units at 95%+ have four-party votes above accredited, and 482 have no accredited figure. Drop both and LP still has 6,738 units against APC’s 588.
Treat giant unanimous boxes as a data warning
Median four-party total among the 1,968 units at 100% is 97 votes. Several 1,000-vote unanimous boxes sit against accredited counts under 200. Those look like transcription errors, not stadium landslides, and they do not change the ranking.
What is counted
For each threshold, the unit is assigned to the leading candidate. Winner votes in those units are summed and compared with that candidate’s national four-party total.
What this is not
A 95%+ result is the recorded four-party split. It is not, by itself, proof of ballot stuffing, intimidation or a boycott. Only INEC declares official results.
How Mundx reads IReV result forms is documented on Method. Companion briefings: how concentrated each candidate’s vote was, city, town and village votes, schools, halls and gates, and 2023 governorship versus presidential votes. Only INEC declares official results.
Open the 2023 map
The same polling-unit file drives the public presidential map. Each unit still links back to its published source record.