The 2023 governorship drew 3.25 million more valid votes than the presidential in the same 31 states.
This briefing compares INEC valid-vote totals from every governorship held in calendar 2023 with the presidential valid-vote total in those same states. Twenty-eight states voted on 18 March, three weeks after the presidential. Kogi, Imo and Bayelsa voted on 11 November. Anambra, Edo, Ekiti, Osun, Ondo and the FCT are out of this file.
across 31 states
in the same states
versus states that fell
the same-cycle fact
The 2023 fact
Two calendars, not one election
The 31-state total mixes 18 March with 11 November. They are both 2023 governorships. They are not the same electorate moment. The March 18 comparison is the one where the same states voted twice three weeks apart.
| Calendar | States | Presidential | Governorship | Gap | % vs presidential |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 March 2023 | 28 | 19.70m | 22.26m | +2.56m | +13.0% |
| 11 November 2023 | 3 | 1.08m | 1.76m | +0.68m | +63.2% |
| All 2023 governorships | 31 | 20.78m | 24.03m | +3.25m | +15.6% |
Kogi, Imo and Bayelsa voted in November as the only race on the ballot. They jumped 51% to 74% and account for 21% of the 3.25 million gap. March 18, on its own, is still +13.0%.
Where the extra votes sat
The North-West produced almost half of the surplus
All seven North-West states recorded more governorship valid votes than presidential valid votes. Together they added 1.57 million ballots — 48% of the 31-state gap. Drop the November races and the South-East falls, while the North-West and North-East barely move.
| Zone | States in file | All 2023 guber races | 18 March only | Vote gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North-West | 7 | +23.4% | +23.4% | +1.57m |
| North-East | 6 | +21.5% | +21.5% | +0.74m |
| North-Central | 6 | +12.3% | +4.9% | +0.50m |
| South-South | 5 | +11.5% | +6.7% | +0.26m |
| South-East | 4 | +8.9% | −8.0% | +0.14m |
| South-West | 3 | +1.1% | +1.1% | +29,377 |
North-Central without Kogi is +4.9%. South-East without Imo is −8.0%. South-West is only Lagos, Oyo and Ogun: Oyo and Ogun rose about 10%, Lagos fell 9%.
1.98m guber valid votes
Kano added 276,000 votes three weeks after the presidential, and still outvoted Lagos’s governorship (1.16m) despite Lagos having the larger register. Presidential valid votes were Kano 1.70m, Lagos 1.27m.
+47% on 18 March
Sokoto, Kebbi (+40%) and Zamfara (+37%) are the largest same-cycle lifts. Zamfara is an APC+PDP sum, so that 37% is a slight underestimate of the governorship side.
Where the guber was smaller
Only three states actually shrank
Seven states show a negative sign. Four of them — Plateau, Kwara, Benue and Abia — moved by 3% or less. The contraction that matters is Lagos, Enugu and Rivers. Those three account for 86% of every vote the governorship lost relative to the presidential.
| State | Presidential | Governorship | Gap | % vs presidential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Enugu | 456,424 | 358,500 | −97,924 | −21.5% |
| Lagos | 1,271,451 | 1,155,678 | −115,773 | −9.1% |
| Rivers | 523,651 | 483,950 | −39,701 | −7.6% |
| Abia | 370,037 | 358,541 | −11,496 | −3.1% |
| Kwara | 469,971 | 460,465 | −9,506 | −2.0% |
| Benue | 770,075 | 756,961 | −13,114 | −1.7% |
| Plateau | 1,088,170 | 1,080,418 | −7,752 | −0.7% |
Lagos and Enugu alone are 72% of the 295,000 total decline. This file has no party shares, so it cannot prove transfer from one ticket to another. It can show that the extra presidential ballots in those three states were not still there on 18 March.
Every 2023 governorship
31 states, ranked by the vote gap
Presidential and governorship columns are all-party valid votes, not four-party sums and not accredited turnout of the register.
| State | Guber date | Presidential | Governorship | Gap | % | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kogi | Nov 11 | 456,790 | 782,323 | +325,533 | +71.3% | Off-cycle |
| Katsina | Mar 18 | 1,058,673 | 1,365,775 | +307,102 | +29.0% | — |
| Sokoto | Mar 18 | 586,815 | 864,446 | +277,631 | +47.3% | — |
| Kano | Mar 18 | 1,702,005 | 1,977,889 | +275,884 | +16.2% | — |
| Imo | Nov 11 | 459,261 | 694,946 | +235,685 | +51.3% | Off-cycle; APGA missing |
| Kebbi | Mar 18+ | 559,522 | 781,411 | +221,889 | +39.7% | Includes supplementary |
| Zamfara | Mar 18 | 502,923 | 689,702 | +186,779 | +37.1% | APC+PDP only |
| Kaduna | Mar 18 | 1,360,153 | 1,546,614 | +186,461 | +13.7% | — |
| Bauchi | Mar 18 | 853,516 | 1,034,379 | +180,863 | +21.2% | INEC valid total |
| Borno | Mar 18 | 465,287 | 633,616 | +168,329 | +36.2% | — |
| Adamawa | Mar 18+ | 731,140 | 853,819 | +122,679 | +16.8% | Includes supplementary |
| Bayelsa | Nov 11 | 165,325 | 287,537 | +122,212 | +73.9% | Off-cycle |
| Nasarawa | Mar 18 | 540,566 | 653,878 | +113,312 | +21.0% | — |
| Jigawa | Mar 18 | 920,531 | 1,032,642 | +112,111 | +12.2% | — |
| Taraba | Mar 18 | 499,358 | 605,950 | +106,592 | +21.3% | Four-party sum |
| Gombe | Mar 18 | 510,043 | 605,370 | +95,327 | +18.7% | — |
| Niger | Mar 18 | 778,668 | 873,088 | +94,420 | +12.1% | — |
| Akwa Ibom | Mar 18 | 555,089 | 644,035 | +88,946 | +16.0% | — |
| Oyo | Mar 18 | 809,485 | 889,626 | +80,141 | +9.9% | — |
| Yobe | Mar 18 | 378,397 | 444,572 | +66,175 | +17.5% | — |
| Ogun | Mar 18 | 580,124 | 645,133 | +65,009 | +11.2% | INEC returning-officer total |
| Delta | Mar 18 | 615,341 | 671,702 | +56,361 | +9.2% | — |
| Cross River | Mar 18 | 416,968 | 451,894 | +34,926 | +8.4% | — |
| Ebonyi | Mar 18 | 325,351 | 342,562 | +17,211 | +5.3% | — |
| Plateau | Mar 18 | 1,088,170 | 1,080,418 | −7,752 | −0.7% | — |
| Kwara | Mar 18 | 469,971 | 460,465 | −9,506 | −2.0% | — |
| Abia | Mar 18 | 370,037 | 358,541 | −11,496 | −3.1% | All 18 parties |
| Benue | Mar 18 | 770,075 | 756,961 | −13,114 | −1.7% | — |
| Rivers | Mar 18 | 523,651 | 483,950 | −39,701 | −7.6% | — |
| Enugu | Mar 18 | 456,424 | 358,500 | −97,924 | −21.5% | — |
| Lagos | Mar 18 | 1,271,451 | 1,155,678 | −115,773 | −9.1% | INEC valid total |
Ranked by governorship minus presidential valid votes. Machine-readable rows: 2023-guber-vs-presidential-votes.csv.
Method
How the 31-state comparison is built
This briefing is a state-total comparison. It does not use the 2023 presidential IReV polling-unit file that drives the other Insights briefings.
Include every governorship held in calendar 2023
That is 28 states on 18 March 2023, plus Kogi, Imo and Bayelsa on 11 November 2023. Kebbi and Adamawa include a supplementary counted with the March race.
Leave out states with no 2023 governorship
Anambra, Edo, Ekiti, Osun and Ondo ran off-cycle in other years. The FCT has no governor. They are not imputed.
Use all-party valid votes on both sides
Each cell is valid votes, not accredited turnout of the register and not a four-party subset. The presidential figure is the 2023 presidential valid-vote total in that state.
Take INEC declared or returning-officer totals where published
Where a published rundown names an INEC valid-vote total or a returning-officer total, that number is used. Those rows are marked in the table.
Keep incomplete party sums as a floor
Zamfara is APC+PDP only. Taraba is a four-party sum. Imo’s published rundown omits APGA. Those governorship totals are slightly low, so the surplus there is a floor, not a ceiling.
Report March 18 and November 11 separately
The 31-state headline is every 2023 governorship. The 13.0% figure is the same-cycle test. Mixing them without a label would treat a November off-cycle race as if it were three weeks after 25 February.
What is counted
The gap is governorship valid votes minus presidential valid votes in the same state. Percentages divide that gap by the presidential valid-vote total.
What this is not
A larger governorship total is not, by itself, proof of mobilisation or of malpractice. It is not a party-share finding and not an official national result. Only INEC declares official results.
How Mundx reads IReV result forms is documented on Method. Companion briefings: how concentrated each candidate’s vote was, city, town and village votes, schools, halls and gates, and one-party polling units. Only INEC declares official results.
Limits
This is a 31-state valid-vote comparison, not a judgement on the official result.
The 20.78 million presidential figure is the sum of these 31 states. It is not INEC’s declared national total of 24.03 million, which includes the five missing states and the FCT. The next useful cut is polling-unit pairing: which units grew, and whether accredited voters grew with them.
Open the 2023 map
The public presidential map is a different file: IReV polling-unit results for four parties. Each unit still links back to its published source record.