Fix the expected units
The INEC polling-unit register supplies stable territory or state, local, ward and unit codes. Surulere contains 757 inventory units in this snapshot, which prevents source rows from silently changing the denominator.
Local evidence record · Declaration unavailable
Surulere 2023 presidential election evidence
Mundx's selected polling-unit observations place LP first in Surulere's four-party aggregation with 45,360 votes, ahead of APC by 13,590. This is not an official LGA declaration. The current source register contains no separately sourced Surulere collation record, so the declared-result field remains unavailable.
Evidence status: complete inventory representation for the four selected parties does not make these figures an EC8C, EC8D or other declared collation result.
Surulere PU layer
Four-party polling-unit aggregation
The selected records total 80,358 votes across APC, LP, PDP and NNPP. LP accounts for 56.4% of that four-party sum; APC accounts for 39.5%.
| Party | Selected PU votes | Four-party share |
|---|---|---|
| LP | 45,360 | 56.4% |
| APC | 31,770 | 39.5% |
| PDP | 2,727 | 3.4% |
| NNPP | 501 | 0.6% |
| Four-party total | 80,358 | 100.0% |
No declared comparison is shown. Mundx will add a declared column only when the source register contains a traceable LGA collation record with its authority, form level, retrieval date and confidence.
Ward evidence
How the four-party pattern varies within Surulere
APC leads 4 and LP leads 8 of the 12 ward rollups. Every row is calculated from selected PU observations and keeps the representation count beside the vote totals.
| Ward | PU leader | APC | LP | PDP | NNPP | Four-party | PUs represented |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adeniran/Ogunsanya | LP | 1,794 | 2,309 | 154 | 21 | 4,278 | 38 / 38 |
| Aguda | LP | 3,364 | 8,568 | 275 | 58 | 12,265 | 116 / 116 |
| Akinhanmi/Cole | APC | 2,294 | 2,169 | 130 | 27 | 4,620 | 52 / 52 |
| Coker | LP | 1,057 | 3,718 | 108 | 28 | 4,911 | 35 / 35 |
| Igbaja/Stadium | APC | 2,579 | 1,433 | 194 | 73 | 4,279 | 43 / 43 |
| Ijeshatedo | LP | 3,086 | 5,801 | 324 | 62 | 9,273 | 86 / 86 |
| Ikate | LP | 2,540 | 5,978 | 262 | 51 | 8,831 | 84 / 84 |
| Iponri Housing Estate/Eric Moore | LP | 1,526 | 1,807 | 176 | 38 | 3,547 | 31 / 31 |
| Itire | LP | 3,568 | 3,992 | 423 | 51 | 8,034 | 94 / 94 |
| Orile | LP | 4,592 | 5,325 | 358 | 48 | 10,323 | 84 / 84 |
| Shitta/Ogunlana Drive | APC | 3,857 | 2,916 | 219 | 36 | 7,028 | 57 / 57 |
| Yaba/Ojuelegba | APC | 1,513 | 1,344 | 104 | 8 | 2,969 | 37 / 37 |
Largest ward rollups
Five local records in context
These notes restate the largest ward aggregates in prose so their leader, margin and representation remain readable outside the table.
- Aguda: LP leads with 8,568 of 12,265 four-party votes, a margin of 5,204 over APC. The rollup represents 116 of 116 inventory units.
- Orile: LP leads with 5,325 of 10,323 four-party votes, a margin of 733 over APC. The rollup represents 84 of 84 inventory units.
- Ijeshatedo: LP leads with 5,801 of 9,273 four-party votes, a margin of 2,715 over APC. The rollup represents 86 of 86 inventory units.
- Ikate: LP leads with 5,978 of 8,831 four-party votes, a margin of 3,438 over APC. The rollup represents 84 of 84 inventory units.
- Itire: LP leads with 3,992 of 8,034 four-party votes, a margin of 424 over APC. The rollup represents 94 of 94 inventory units.
Evidence beneath the wards
Largest represented polling-unit rollups
The ten rows below are ordered by four-party vote count. This is not a turnout ranking and does not imply official validation. The source label identifies which selected observation supplied the four party fields.
| Polling unit | Ward | PU leader | Four-party votes | Selected source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
24-20-09-020Booth At Block No. 13 | Iponri Housing Estate/Eric Moore | APC | 390 | CCIJ |
24-20-10-012Junction Of Imoru St./Catholic Mission St. | Coker | LP | 380 | CCIJ |
24-20-08-017Blk. 44, Alh. Masha Road | Adeniran/Ogunsanya | APC | 316 | CCIJ |
24-20-02-012Junction Of Odogbolu St./Iyarere St.- I | Aguda | LP | 291 | CCIJ |
24-20-10-021Coker Compound By House No. 22 - I | Coker | LP | 285 | CCIJ |
24-20-12-052Aderibigbe St./Adeniyi Adefioye St. I | Ikate | LP | 274 | MARK |
24-20-10-022Coker Compound By House No. 22 - Ii | Coker | LP | 258 | CCIJ |
24-20-02-048Junction Of Onikoyi St./Brown Road - I | Aguda | LP | 235 | CCIJ |
24-20-09-015Iponri Estate High School I | Iponri Housing Estate/Eric Moore | LP | 231 | CCIJ |
24-20-02-018Adetola St. By House No. 145 - I | Aguda | LP | 229 | CCIJ |
How this record was built
From inventory to local aggregation
Apply one policy
Complete CCIJ observations take precedence, followed by complete Mark Essien fallbacks. Surulere's selected records break down as CCIJ 724, MARK 33. The policy is deterministic and preserves the original source label.
Sum without declaring
Party values are summed from PU to ward and LGA. Missing observations stay visible instead of being estimated. In Surulere, 757 of 757 units are represented, while the scope still excludes fourteen parties.
What this rollout preserves. The page is designed to survive a later declared-result addition without changing its URL. A future collation record would appear as a separately sourced layer beside this aggregation; it would not overwrite the PU evidence, backfill a missing total, or turn the calculated ward table into an official document. Every future update should retain the review date and show which layer changed, so readers can distinguish new source evidence from a presentation revision. Keeping that contract stable now is more important than generating hundreds of local pages at once.
Questions this page answers
Surulere evidence notes
Did LP officially win Surulere?
This page does not make that claim. It says LP leads Mundx's four-party aggregation of selected polling-unit observations. A statement about the declared LGA result requires a sourced collation record at the appropriate result layer.
What does representation mean?
It reports how many inventory units have a selected observation containing all four tracked party values. It does not establish sheet authenticity, capture all eighteen parties, or reproduce every correction made during collation.
Why preserve an unavailable field?
An explicit unavailable value is safer than promoting a calculated PU sum into an official result. It also makes future source work concrete: add the declared layer only with a form level, authority URL, retrieval date and documented confidence.
How is this different from the Surulere place page?
The permanent Surulere place record describes geography across cycles. This contest page is tied to the 2023 presidential election, its evidence layers and its source limitations. The URLs serve different questions and should not duplicate one another.
Provenance
What is official, and what Mundx calculated
The current source register does not contain a declared LGA collation record for this geography. Mundx therefore leaves the declared layer empty instead of inferring one from polling units.
Mundx's second layer is a four-party aggregation of selected polling-unit observations. It applies policy all-complete-ccij-first-v1: complete CCIJ records take precedence, then complete Mark Essien records fill remaining units.
- INEC 2023 presidential IReV record.
- State/FCT collation reproduction.
- 176,409 represented units from an inventory of 176,846; 437 remain unresolved nationally.
Canonical PU policy all-complete-ccij-first-v1 · CCIJ commit e38e3bc9a22a
Reuse boundary. Mundx Analytics confirms permission to publish and redistribute the source-derived records in this release. No standard open-data licence or third-party bulk-reuse terms are specified.
Published by Mundx Analytics · reviewed by Mundx Analytics Data Team on 22 September 2026 · official sources retrieved 2026-08-20.