Fix the expected units
The INEC polling-unit register supplies stable territory or state, local, ward and unit codes. Mushin contains 865 inventory units in this snapshot, which prevents source rows from silently changing the denominator.
Local evidence record · Declaration unavailable
Mushin 2023 presidential election evidence
Mundx's selected polling-unit observations place APC first in Mushin's four-party aggregation with 39,783 votes, ahead of LP by 17,889. This is not an official LGA declaration. The current source register contains no separately sourced Mushin collation record, so the declared-result field remains unavailable.
Evidence status: complete inventory representation for the four selected parties does not make these figures an EC8C, EC8D or other declared collation result.
Mushin PU layer
Four-party polling-unit aggregation
The selected records total 65,332 votes across APC, LP, PDP and NNPP. APC accounts for 60.9% of that four-party sum; LP accounts for 33.5%.
| Party | Selected PU votes | Four-party share |
|---|---|---|
| APC | 39,783 | 60.9% |
| LP | 21,894 | 33.5% |
| PDP | 3,274 | 5.0% |
| NNPP | 381 | 0.6% |
| Four-party total | 65,332 | 100.0% |
No declared comparison is shown. Mundx will add a declared column only when the source register contains a traceable LGA collation record with its authority, form level, retrieval date and confidence.
Ward evidence
How the four-party pattern varies within Mushin
APC leads 14 of the 14 ward rollups. Every row is calculated from selected PU observations and keeps the representation count beside the vote totals.
| Ward | PU leader | APC | LP | PDP | NNPP | Four-party | PUs represented |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alakara | APC | 1,893 | 565 | 82 | 2 | 2,542 | 29 / 29 |
| Babalosa | APC | 1,948 | 694 | 188 | 2 | 2,832 | 35 / 35 |
| Babalosa/Idi-Araba | APC | 3,736 | 986 | 316 | 69 | 5,107 | 95 / 95 |
| Idi-Araba | APC | 2,118 | 1,751 | 185 | 76 | 4,130 | 62 / 62 |
| Idi-Oro/Odi-Olowu | APC | 2,225 | 446 | 107 | 2 | 2,780 | 34 / 34 |
| Ilasamaja | APC | 5,238 | 3,939 | 541 | 25 | 9,743 | 105 / 105 |
| Ilupeju | APC | 3,097 | 1,427 | 194 | 10 | 4,728 | 62 / 62 |
| Ilupeju Industrial Estate | APC | 793 | 576 | 100 | 5 | 1,474 | 23 / 23 |
| Itire | APC | 5,383 | 4,601 | 588 | 87 | 10,659 | 153 / 153 |
| Kayode/Fadeyi | APC | 2,056 | 1,112 | 185 | 7 | 3,360 | 50 / 50 |
| Mushin/Atewolara | APC | 4,818 | 2,708 | 400 | 48 | 7,974 | 83 / 83 |
| Ojuwoye | APC | 2,324 | 588 | 141 | 11 | 3,064 | 40 / 40 |
| Olateju | APC | 1,717 | 422 | 94 | 7 | 2,240 | 30 / 30 |
| Papa-Ajao | APC | 2,437 | 2,079 | 153 | 30 | 4,699 | 64 / 64 |
Largest ward rollups
Five local records in context
These notes restate the largest ward aggregates in prose so their leader, margin and representation remain readable outside the table.
- Itire: APC leads with 5,383 of 10,659 four-party votes, a margin of 782 over LP. The rollup represents 153 of 153 inventory units.
- Ilasamaja: APC leads with 5,238 of 9,743 four-party votes, a margin of 1,299 over LP. The rollup represents 105 of 105 inventory units.
- Mushin/Atewolara: APC leads with 4,818 of 7,974 four-party votes, a margin of 2,110 over LP. The rollup represents 83 of 83 inventory units.
- Babalosa/Idi-Araba: APC leads with 3,736 of 5,107 four-party votes, a margin of 2,750 over LP. The rollup represents 95 of 95 inventory units.
- Ilupeju: APC leads with 3,097 of 4,728 four-party votes, a margin of 1,670 over LP. The rollup represents 62 of 62 inventory units.
Evidence beneath the wards
Largest represented polling-unit rollups
The ten rows below are ordered by four-party vote count. This is not a turnout ranking and does not imply official validation. The source label identifies which selected observation supplied the four party fields.
| Polling unit | Ward | PU leader | Four-party votes | Selected source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
24-16-09-04282, Palm Avenue Ii | Papa-Ajao | APC | 227 | CCIJ |
24-16-10-04826, Akanro St. | Ilasamaja | LP | 212 | CCIJ |
24-16-08-06020, Oluyide St. | Mushin/Atewolara | APC | 189 | CCIJ |
24-16-08-0063, Amu St. I | Mushin/Atewolara | APC | 188 | CCIJ |
24-16-08-04926, Olufunmilayo St. | Mushin/Atewolara | APC | 182 | CCIJ |
24-16-09-01325, Awanatu St. | Papa-Ajao | LP | 179 | CCIJ |
24-16-10-04431, Kekereowo St. | Ilasamaja | LP | 174 | CCIJ |
24-16-10-02911, Tanimowo St. | Ilasamaja | APC | 172 | CCIJ |
24-16-10-0402, Oladosu Sanusi St. | Ilasamaja | LP | 167 | CCIJ |
24-16-13-06913, Ijaye St. | Itire | APC | 166 | CCIJ |
How this record was built
From inventory to local aggregation
Apply one policy
Complete CCIJ observations take precedence, followed by complete Mark Essien fallbacks. Mushin's selected records break down as CCIJ 833, MARK 32. The policy is deterministic and preserves the original source label.
Sum without declaring
Party values are summed from PU to ward and LGA. Missing observations stay visible instead of being estimated. In Mushin, 865 of 865 units are represented, while the scope still excludes fourteen parties.
What this rollout preserves. The page is designed to survive a later declared-result addition without changing its URL. A future collation record would appear as a separately sourced layer beside this aggregation; it would not overwrite the PU evidence, backfill a missing total, or turn the calculated ward table into an official document. Every future update should retain the review date and show which layer changed, so readers can distinguish new source evidence from a presentation revision. Keeping that contract stable now is more important than generating hundreds of local pages at once.
Questions this page answers
Mushin evidence notes
Did APC officially win Mushin?
This page does not make that claim. It says APC leads Mundx's four-party aggregation of selected polling-unit observations. A statement about the declared LGA result requires a sourced collation record at the appropriate result layer.
What does representation mean?
It reports how many inventory units have a selected observation containing all four tracked party values. It does not establish sheet authenticity, capture all eighteen parties, or reproduce every correction made during collation.
Why preserve an unavailable field?
An explicit unavailable value is safer than promoting a calculated PU sum into an official result. It also makes future source work concrete: add the declared layer only with a form level, authority URL, retrieval date and documented confidence.
How is this different from the Mushin place page?
The permanent Mushin place record describes geography across cycles. This contest page is tied to the 2023 presidential election, its evidence layers and its source limitations. The URLs serve different questions and should not duplicate one another.
Provenance
What is official, and what Mundx calculated
The current source register does not contain a declared LGA collation record for this geography. Mundx therefore leaves the declared layer empty instead of inferring one from polling units.
Mundx's second layer is a four-party aggregation of selected polling-unit observations. It applies policy all-complete-ccij-first-v1: complete CCIJ records take precedence, then complete Mark Essien records fill remaining units.
- INEC 2023 presidential IReV record.
- State/FCT collation reproduction.
- 176,409 represented units from an inventory of 176,846; 437 remain unresolved nationally.
Canonical PU policy all-complete-ccij-first-v1 · CCIJ commit e38e3bc9a22a
Reuse boundary. Mundx Analytics confirms permission to publish and redistribute the source-derived records in this release. No standard open-data licence or third-party bulk-reuse terms are specified.
Published by Mundx Analytics · reviewed by Mundx Analytics Data Team on 22 September 2026 · official sources retrieved 2026-08-20.