The EC8D reproduction
The state values reproduce the collation result for the four named parties. Grade B reflects a corroborated table without a direct scanned EC8D form in the current register.
Final state result · North Central · Two-layer record
Kwara 2023 presidential election result
The reproduced Kwara EC8D collation records APC first with 263,572 votes and PDP second with 136,909. The declared margin was 126,663 votes. Mundx presents that state declaration beside, but never merged with, a four-party polling-unit research layer.
Result of record: the reproduced state collation. Research evidence: selected PU observations for APC, LP, PDP and NNPP under a documented policy.
Kwara reconciliation
Declared totals beside selected PU observations
The declared four-party collation totals 434,788. The canonical PU layer totals 418,408, which is 96.2% of the declared figure and 16,380 below it.
| Party / scope | Declared collation | PU rollup | Declared minus PU | PU as % declared |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| APC | 263,572 | 251,655 | +11,917 | 95.5% |
| LP | 31,166 | 31,482 | -316 | 101.0% |
| PDP | 136,909 | 129,199 | +7,710 | 94.4% |
| NNPP | 3,141 | 6,072 | -2,931 | 193.3% |
| Four-party total | 434,788 | 418,408 | +16,380 | 96.2% |
The difference is descriptive, not causal. “Declared minus canonical PU” equals +16,380 for the four tracked parties. It must not be relabelled as missing votes, invalid votes or fraud: the two layers were created at different stages, and the available record does not establish a single cause.
Local evidence
Polling-unit rollups across 16 Kwara LGAs
These rows are calculated from selected polling-unit records, not declared LGA collation totals. APC leads 16 of the 16 local rollups. Each LGA name opens its permanent place page with ward and polling-unit context.
| LGA | PU leader | APC | LP | PDP | NNPP | Four-party | PUs represented |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asa | APC | 14,589 | 647 | 10,008 | 155 | 25,399 | 145 / 145 |
| Baruten | APC | 21,388 | 713 | 9,688 | 118 | 31,907 | 230 / 230 |
| Edu | APC | 17,395 | 758 | 12,148 | 937 | 31,238 | 175 / 175 |
| Ekiti | APC | 5,818 | 831 | 3,714 | 29 | 10,392 | 76 / 76 |
| Ifelodun | APC | 14,921 | 2,300 | 5,865 | 1,019 | 24,105 | 236 / 236 |
| Ilorin East | APC | 26,087 | 2,438 | 12,906 | 1,154 | 42,585 | 320 / 320 |
| Ilorin-South | APC | 21,356 | 7,075 | 10,658 | 160 | 39,249 | 275 / 275 |
| Ilorin-West | APC | 45,561 | 6,227 | 28,476 | 492 | 80,756 | 464 / 464 |
| Irepodun | APC | 10,376 | 3,170 | 6,132 | 196 | 19,874 | 158 / 158 |
| Isin | APC | 4,011 | 1,323 | 2,229 | 50 | 7,613 | 80 / 80 |
| Kaiama | APC | 14,084 | 490 | 5,981 | 431 | 20,986 | 124 / 124 |
| Moro | APC | 14,316 | 957 | 6,251 | 137 | 21,661 | 142 / 142 |
| Offa | APC | 18,126 | 1,368 | 3,180 | 84 | 22,758 | 173 / 173 |
| Oke - Ero | APC | 6,940 | 544 | 2,894 | 729 | 11,107 | 76 / 76 |
| Oyun | APC | 8,755 | 1,805 | 4,201 | 131 | 14,892 | 108 / 108 |
| Patigi | APC | 7,932 | 836 | 4,868 | 250 | 13,886 | 105 / 105 |
Largest local rollups
Five LGAs in Kwara context
The notes restate the largest local aggregations in prose so their leader, margin and evidence coverage remain legible outside the table. A PU-layer lead is not an official LGA declaration.
- Ilorin-West: APC leads the selected four-party rollup with 45,561 votes, 17,085 ahead of PDP. The local total is 80,756 across 464 represented units. The selected source layer represents every polling unit in the inventory.
- Ilorin East: APC leads the selected four-party rollup with 26,087 votes, 13,181 ahead of PDP. The local total is 42,585 across 320 represented units. The selected source layer represents every polling unit in the inventory.
- Ilorin-South: APC leads the selected four-party rollup with 21,356 votes, 10,698 ahead of PDP. The local total is 39,249 across 275 represented units. The selected source layer represents every polling unit in the inventory.
- Baruten: APC leads the selected four-party rollup with 21,388 votes, 11,700 ahead of PDP. The local total is 31,907 across 230 represented units. The selected source layer represents every polling unit in the inventory.
- Edu: APC leads the selected four-party rollup with 17,395 votes, 5,247 ahead of PDP. The local total is 31,238 across 175 represented units. The selected source layer represents every polling unit in the inventory.
Reading the Kwara record
One contest, two evidence layers
The canonical PU layer
All 2,887 polling units in the inventory have a selected four-party observation. Representation does not authenticate each observation, restore the other fourteen parties or reproduce later collation decisions.
The LGA evidence directory
Ilorin-West has the largest local rollup at 80,756. In Edu, APC leads PDP by 5,247 in the closest proportional margin.
Coverage needs a denominator. The least complete local record is Asa at 100.0% of its inventory. Cite represented and inventory counts when an LGA has unresolved records. Full representation still does not make the rollup an official declaration.
Questions this page answers
Kwara result notes
Who led Kwara in the declared result?
APC led with 263,572 votes. PDP followed on 136,909, a margin of 126,663. The four tracked parties total 434,788; that subtotal is not the complete eighteen-party vote.
What does the local pattern show?
APC leads 16 of the 16 LGA rollups. State-wide, APC leads the PU layer with 251,655 of 418,408 four-party votes, 122,456 ahead of PDP. This does not revise the declared leader.
Why can the declared and PU totals differ?
EC8D is a state collation product. Mundx selects complete four-party PU observations, prioritising CCIJ records and then Mark Essien fallbacks. Scope, availability, transcription and later collation steps can differ. The comparison identifies questions; it does not prove a cause.
How should this page be cited?
Use this permanent URL for the Kwara declaration and comparison. Name the layer, year and review date. Cite an LGA place record for a local PU claim, and do not call its PU leader a declared winner without a traceable local collation source.
Provenance
What is official, and what Mundx calculated
The declared layer comes from INEC's result collection and a contemporaneous reproduction of the collation table. It is a collation product, not a sum recreated by Mundx.
Mundx's second layer is a four-party aggregation of selected polling-unit observations. It applies policy all-complete-ccij-first-v1: complete CCIJ records take precedence, then complete Mark Essien records fill remaining units.
- INEC 2023 presidential IReV record.
- State/FCT collation reproduction.
- 176,409 represented units from an inventory of 176,846; 437 remain unresolved nationally.
Canonical PU policy all-complete-ccij-first-v1 · CCIJ commit e38e3bc9a22a
Reuse boundary. Mundx Analytics confirms permission to publish and redistribute the source-derived records in this release. No standard open-data licence or third-party bulk-reuse terms are specified.
Published by Mundx Analytics · reviewed by Mundx Analytics Data Team on 22 September 2026 · official sources retrieved 2026-08-20.