The EC8D reproduction
The state values reproduce the collation result for the four named parties. Grade B reflects a corroborated table without a direct scanned EC8D form in the current register.
Final state result · South West · Two-layer record
Oyo 2023 presidential election result
The reproduced Oyo EC8D collation records APC first with 449,884 votes and PDP second with 182,977. The declared margin was 266,907 votes. Mundx presents that state declaration beside, but never merged with, a four-party polling-unit research layer.
Result of record: the reproduced state collation. Research evidence: selected PU observations for APC, LP, PDP and NNPP under a documented policy.
Oyo reconciliation
Declared totals beside selected PU observations
The declared four-party collation totals 736,066. The canonical PU layer totals 618,189, which is 84.0% of the declared figure and 117,877 below it.
| Party / scope | Declared collation | PU rollup | Declared minus PU | PU as % declared |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| APC | 449,884 | 371,145 | +78,739 | 82.5% |
| LP | 99,110 | 85,178 | +13,932 | 85.9% |
| PDP | 182,977 | 146,731 | +36,246 | 80.2% |
| NNPP | 4,095 | 15,135 | -11,040 | 369.6% |
| Four-party total | 736,066 | 618,189 | +117,877 | 84.0% |
The difference is descriptive, not causal. “Declared minus canonical PU” equals +117,877 for the four tracked parties. It must not be relabelled as missing votes, invalid votes or fraud: the two layers were created at different stages, and the available record does not establish a single cause.
Local evidence
Polling-unit rollups across 33 Oyo LGAs
These rows are calculated from selected polling-unit records, not declared LGA collation totals. APC leads 32 and PDP leads 1 of the 33 local rollups. Each LGA name opens its permanent place page with ward and polling-unit context.
| LGA | PU leader | APC | LP | PDP | NNPP | Four-party | PUs represented |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Afijio | APC | 8,360 | 1,865 | 3,857 | 89 | 14,171 | 95 / 95 |
| Akinyele | APC | 20,042 | 6,194 | 6,068 | 164 | 32,468 | 278 / 278 |
| Atiba | APC | 13,433 | 1,014 | 5,101 | 893 | 20,441 | 168 / 168 |
| Atisbo | APC | 7,167 | 1,001 | 3,647 | 35 | 11,850 | 152 / 152 |
| Egbeda | APC | 19,495 | 5,767 | 5,167 | 135 | 30,564 | 294 / 294 |
| Ibadan North | APC | 23,890 | 10,758 | 7,350 | 483 | 42,481 | 512 / 512 |
| Ibadan North East | APC | 18,155 | 2,845 | 7,871 | 206 | 29,077 | 336 / 336 |
| Ibadan North West | APC | 12,672 | 4,474 | 5,813 | 86 | 23,045 | 240 / 240 |
| Ibadan South West | APC | 23,914 | 8,905 | 6,916 | 123 | 39,858 | 473 / 473 |
| Ibadan South-East | APC | 14,366 | 1,008 | 5,207 | 1,263 | 21,844 | 352 / 352 |
| Ibarapa Central | APC | 5,530 | 304 | 2,266 | 472 | 8,572 | 140 / 140 |
| Ibarapa East | APC | 10,392 | 739 | 4,850 | 54 | 16,035 | 148 / 148 |
| Ibarapa North | APC | 5,441 | 217 | 2,409 | 1,083 | 9,150 | 148 / 148 |
| Ido | APC | 14,981 | 4,759 | 3,218 | 94 | 23,052 | 196 / 196 |
| Irepo | APC | 10,371 | 370 | 3,381 | 32 | 14,154 | 101 / 101 |
| Iseyin | APC | 10,463 | 782 | 2,710 | 2,540 | 16,495 | 229 / 229 |
| Itesiwaju | PDP | 2,498 | 194 | 2,894 | 23 | 5,609 | 97 / 97 |
| Iwajowa | APC | 5,722 | 348 | 4,683 | 155 | 10,908 | 120 / 120 |
| Kajola | APC | 9,112 | 487 | 7,362 | 86 | 17,047 | 132 / 132 |
| Lagelu | APC | 14,753 | 3,769 | 4,804 | 101 | 23,427 | 225 / 225 |
| Ogbomoso North | APC | 14,170 | 6,509 | 5,327 | 1,130 | 27,136 | 188 / 188 |
| Ogbomoso South | APC | 8,352 | 4,799 | 5,277 | 268 | 18,696 | 183 / 183 |
| Ogo-Oluwa | APC | 6,531 | 2,095 | 4,194 | 339 | 13,159 | 95 / 95 |
| Olorunsogo | APC | 2,997 | 656 | 1,635 | 1,494 | 6,782 | 68 / 68 |
| Oluyole | APC | 12,363 | 3,289 | 3,996 | 83 | 19,731 | 229 / 229 |
| Ona-Ara | APC | 8,228 | 969 | 3,115 | 1,517 | 13,829 | 150 / 150 |
| Oorelope | APC | 5,625 | 610 | 1,804 | 167 | 8,206 | 93 / 93 |
| Ori Ire | APC | 10,686 | 1,607 | 5,448 | 50 | 17,791 | 168 / 168 |
| Oyo East | APC | 11,255 | 1,750 | 4,058 | 49 | 17,112 | 149 / 149 |
| Oyo West | APC | 12,432 | 1,620 | 3,553 | 1,426 | 19,031 | 139 / 139 |
| Saki East | APC | 4,222 | 806 | 2,189 | 198 | 7,415 | 105 / 105 |
| Saki West | APC | 14,095 | 2,055 | 3,529 | 98 | 19,777 | 228 / 228 |
| Surulere | APC | 9,432 | 2,613 | 7,032 | 199 | 19,276 | 159 / 159 |
Largest local rollups
Five LGAs in Oyo context
The notes restate the largest local aggregations in prose so their leader, margin and evidence coverage remain legible outside the table. A PU-layer lead is not an official LGA declaration.
- Ibadan North: APC leads the selected four-party rollup with 23,890 votes, 13,132 ahead of LP. The local total is 42,481 across 512 represented units. The selected source layer represents every polling unit in the inventory.
- Ibadan South West: APC leads the selected four-party rollup with 23,914 votes, 15,009 ahead of LP. The local total is 39,858 across 473 represented units. The selected source layer represents every polling unit in the inventory.
- Akinyele: APC leads the selected four-party rollup with 20,042 votes, 13,848 ahead of LP. The local total is 32,468 across 278 represented units. The selected source layer represents every polling unit in the inventory.
- Egbeda: APC leads the selected four-party rollup with 19,495 votes, 13,728 ahead of LP. The local total is 30,564 across 294 represented units. The selected source layer represents every polling unit in the inventory.
- Ibadan North East: APC leads the selected four-party rollup with 18,155 votes, 10,284 ahead of PDP. The local total is 29,077 across 336 represented units. The selected source layer represents every polling unit in the inventory.
Reading the Oyo record
One contest, two evidence layers
The canonical PU layer
All 6,390 polling units in the inventory have a selected four-party observation. Representation does not authenticate each observation, restore the other fourteen parties or reproduce later collation decisions.
The LGA evidence directory
Ibadan North has the largest local rollup at 42,481. In Itesiwaju, PDP leads APC by 396 in the closest proportional margin.
Coverage needs a denominator. The least complete local record is Afijio at 100.0% of its inventory. Cite represented and inventory counts when an LGA has unresolved records. Full representation still does not make the rollup an official declaration.
Questions this page answers
Oyo result notes
Who led Oyo in the declared result?
APC led with 449,884 votes. PDP followed on 182,977, a margin of 266,907. The four tracked parties total 736,066; that subtotal is not the complete eighteen-party vote.
What does the local pattern show?
APC leads 32 and PDP leads 1 of the 33 LGA rollups. State-wide, APC leads the PU layer with 371,145 of 618,189 four-party votes, 224,414 ahead of PDP. This does not revise the declared leader.
Why can the declared and PU totals differ?
EC8D is a state collation product. Mundx selects complete four-party PU observations, prioritising CCIJ records and then Mark Essien fallbacks. Scope, availability, transcription and later collation steps can differ. The comparison identifies questions; it does not prove a cause.
How should this page be cited?
Use this permanent URL for the Oyo declaration and comparison. Name the layer, year and review date. Cite an LGA place record for a local PU claim, and do not call its PU leader a declared winner without a traceable local collation source.
Provenance
What is official, and what Mundx calculated
The declared layer comes from INEC's result collection and a contemporaneous reproduction of the collation table. It is a collation product, not a sum recreated by Mundx.
Mundx's second layer is a four-party aggregation of selected polling-unit observations. It applies policy all-complete-ccij-first-v1: complete CCIJ records take precedence, then complete Mark Essien records fill remaining units.
- INEC 2023 presidential IReV record.
- State/FCT collation reproduction.
- 176,409 represented units from an inventory of 176,846; 437 remain unresolved nationally.
Canonical PU policy all-complete-ccij-first-v1 · CCIJ commit e38e3bc9a22a
Reuse boundary. Mundx Analytics confirms permission to publish and redistribute the source-derived records in this release. No standard open-data licence or third-party bulk-reuse terms are specified.
Published by Mundx Analytics · reviewed by Mundx Analytics Data Team on 22 September 2026 · official sources retrieved 2026-08-20.