The EC8D reproduction
The state values reproduce the collation result for the four named parties. Grade B reflects a corroborated table without a direct scanned EC8D form in the current register.
Final state result · South West · Two-layer record
Ogun 2023 presidential election result
The reproduced Ogun EC8D collation records APC first with 341,554 votes and PDP second with 123,831. The declared margin was 217,723 votes. Mundx presents that state declaration beside, but never merged with, a four-party polling-unit research layer.
Result of record: the reproduced state collation. Research evidence: selected PU observations for APC, LP, PDP and NNPP under a documented policy.
Ogun reconciliation
Declared totals beside selected PU observations
The declared four-party collation totals 553,414. The canonical PU layer totals 497,796, which is 90.0% of the declared figure and 55,618 below it.
| Party / scope | Declared collation | PU rollup | Declared minus PU | PU as % declared |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| APC | 341,554 | 303,703 | +37,851 | 88.9% |
| LP | 85,829 | 73,675 | +12,154 | 85.8% |
| PDP | 123,831 | 108,622 | +15,209 | 87.7% |
| NNPP | 2,200 | 11,796 | -9,596 | 536.2% |
| Four-party total | 553,414 | 497,796 | +55,618 | 90.0% |
The difference is descriptive, not causal. “Declared minus canonical PU” equals +55,618 for the four tracked parties. It must not be relabelled as missing votes, invalid votes or fraud: the two layers were created at different stages, and the available record does not establish a single cause.
Local evidence
Polling-unit rollups across 20 Ogun LGAs
These rows are calculated from selected polling-unit records, not declared LGA collation totals. APC leads 20 of the 20 local rollups. Each LGA name opens its permanent place page with ward and polling-unit context.
| LGA | PU leader | APC | LP | PDP | NNPP | Four-party | PUs represented |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abeokuta North | APC | 18,925 | 3,892 | 4,920 | 93 | 27,830 | 338 / 338 |
| Abeokuta South | APC | 21,559 | 5,946 | 5,705 | 3,635 | 36,845 | 445 / 445 |
| Ado Odo-Ota | APC | 42,954 | 16,513 | 10,180 | 271 | 69,918 | 655 / 655 |
| Egbado North | APC | 16,530 | 1,339 | 8,749 | 423 | 27,041 | 251 / 251 |
| Egbado South | APC | 16,337 | 2,437 | 4,789 | 104 | 23,667 | 257 / 257 |
| Ewekoro | APC | 8,959 | 2,098 | 3,533 | 65 | 14,655 | 188 / 188 |
| Ifo | APC | 20,151 | 7,315 | 4,011 | 717 | 32,194 | 448 / 448 |
| Ijebu East | APC | 10,766 | 2,128 | 4,264 | 37 | 17,195 | 154 / 154 |
| Ijebu North | APC | 22,077 | 2,110 | 6,206 | 1,880 | 32,273 | 268 / 268 |
| Ijebu North East | APC | 6,484 | 1,673 | 2,120 | 945 | 11,222 | 111 / 111 |
| Ijebu Ode | APC | 14,470 | 2,896 | 3,909 | 60 | 21,335 | 161 / 161 |
| Ikenne | APC | 9,955 | 2,585 | 6,355 | 787 | 19,682 | 126 / 126 |
| Imeko/Afon | APC | 9,922 | 1,375 | 3,729 | 29 | 15,055 | 132 / 132 |
| Ipokia | APC | 14,529 | 1,617 | 13,423 | 152 | 29,721 | 262 / 262 |
| Obafemi/Owode | APC | 16,001 | 8,093 | 2,848 | 1,539 | 28,481 | 329 / 329 |
| Odeda | APC | 10,463 | 2,200 | 3,562 | 170 | 16,395 | 182 / 182 |
| Odogbolu | APC | 11,130 | 2,412 | 5,639 | 26 | 19,207 | 178 / 178 |
| Ogun Water Side | APC | 8,398 | 378 | 4,077 | 671 | 13,524 | 126 / 126 |
| Remo North | APC | 5,414 | 864 | 3,265 | 48 | 9,591 | 132 / 132 |
| Sagamu | APC | 18,679 | 5,804 | 7,338 | 144 | 31,965 | 299 / 299 |
Largest local rollups
Five LGAs in Ogun context
The notes restate the largest local aggregations in prose so their leader, margin and evidence coverage remain legible outside the table. A PU-layer lead is not an official LGA declaration.
- Ado Odo-Ota: APC leads the selected four-party rollup with 42,954 votes, 26,441 ahead of LP. The local total is 69,918 across 655 represented units. The selected source layer represents every polling unit in the inventory.
- Abeokuta South: APC leads the selected four-party rollup with 21,559 votes, 15,613 ahead of LP. The local total is 36,845 across 445 represented units. The selected source layer represents every polling unit in the inventory.
- Ijebu North: APC leads the selected four-party rollup with 22,077 votes, 15,871 ahead of PDP. The local total is 32,273 across 268 represented units. The selected source layer represents every polling unit in the inventory.
- Ifo: APC leads the selected four-party rollup with 20,151 votes, 12,836 ahead of LP. The local total is 32,194 across 448 represented units. The selected source layer represents every polling unit in the inventory.
- Sagamu: APC leads the selected four-party rollup with 18,679 votes, 11,341 ahead of PDP. The local total is 31,965 across 299 represented units. The selected source layer represents every polling unit in the inventory.
Reading the Ogun record
One contest, two evidence layers
The canonical PU layer
All 5,042 polling units in the inventory have a selected four-party observation. Representation does not authenticate each observation, restore the other fourteen parties or reproduce later collation decisions.
The LGA evidence directory
Ado Odo-Ota has the largest local rollup at 69,918. In Ipokia, APC leads PDP by 1,106 in the closest proportional margin.
Coverage needs a denominator. The least complete local record is Abeokuta North at 100.0% of its inventory. Cite represented and inventory counts when an LGA has unresolved records. Full representation still does not make the rollup an official declaration.
Questions this page answers
Ogun result notes
Who led Ogun in the declared result?
APC led with 341,554 votes. PDP followed on 123,831, a margin of 217,723. The four tracked parties total 553,414; that subtotal is not the complete eighteen-party vote.
What does the local pattern show?
APC leads 20 of the 20 LGA rollups. State-wide, APC leads the PU layer with 303,703 of 497,796 four-party votes, 195,081 ahead of PDP. This does not revise the declared leader.
Why can the declared and PU totals differ?
EC8D is a state collation product. Mundx selects complete four-party PU observations, prioritising CCIJ records and then Mark Essien fallbacks. Scope, availability, transcription and later collation steps can differ. The comparison identifies questions; it does not prove a cause.
How should this page be cited?
Use this permanent URL for the Ogun declaration and comparison. Name the layer, year and review date. Cite an LGA place record for a local PU claim, and do not call its PU leader a declared winner without a traceable local collation source.
Provenance
What is official, and what Mundx calculated
The declared layer comes from INEC's result collection and a contemporaneous reproduction of the collation table. It is a collation product, not a sum recreated by Mundx.
Mundx's second layer is a four-party aggregation of selected polling-unit observations. It applies policy all-complete-ccij-first-v1: complete CCIJ records take precedence, then complete Mark Essien records fill remaining units.
- INEC 2023 presidential IReV record.
- State/FCT collation reproduction.
- 176,409 represented units from an inventory of 176,846; 437 remain unresolved nationally.
Canonical PU policy all-complete-ccij-first-v1 · CCIJ commit e38e3bc9a22a
Reuse boundary. Mundx Analytics confirms permission to publish and redistribute the source-derived records in this release. No standard open-data licence or third-party bulk-reuse terms are specified.
Published by Mundx Analytics · reviewed by Mundx Analytics Data Team on 22 September 2026 · official sources retrieved 2026-08-20.