The EC8D reproduction
The state values reproduce the collation result for the four named parties. Grade B reflects a corroborated table without a direct scanned EC8D form in the current register.
Final state result · South South · Two-layer record
Bayelsa 2023 presidential election result
The reproduced Bayelsa EC8D collation records PDP first with 68,818 votes and LP second with 49,975. The declared margin was 18,843 votes. Mundx presents that state declaration beside, but never merged with, a four-party polling-unit research layer.
Result of record: the reproduced state collation. Research evidence: selected PU observations for APC, LP, PDP and NNPP under a documented policy.
Bayelsa reconciliation
Declared totals beside selected PU observations
The declared four-party collation totals 161,905. The canonical PU layer totals 164,752, which is 101.8% of the declared figure and 2,847 above it.
| Party / scope | Declared collation | PU rollup | Declared minus PU | PU as % declared |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| APC | 42,572 | 45,231 | -2,659 | 106.2% |
| LP | 49,975 | 49,769 | +206 | 99.6% |
| PDP | 68,818 | 68,428 | +390 | 99.4% |
| NNPP | 540 | 1,324 | -784 | 245.2% |
| Four-party total | 161,905 | 164,752 | -2,847 | 101.8% |
The difference is descriptive, not causal. “Declared minus canonical PU” equals -2,847 for the four tracked parties. It must not be relabelled as missing votes, invalid votes or fraud: the two layers were created at different stages, and the available record does not establish a single cause.
Local evidence
Polling-unit rollups across 8 Bayelsa LGAs
These rows are calculated from selected polling-unit records, not declared LGA collation totals. APC leads 2, LP leads 1 and PDP leads 5 of the 8 local rollups. Each LGA name opens its permanent place page with ward and polling-unit context.
| LGA | PU leader | APC | LP | PDP | NNPP | Four-party | PUs represented |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brass | PDP | 3,550 | 2,254 | 6,118 | 47 | 11,969 | 172 / 172 |
| Ekeremor | PDP | 4,288 | 3,814 | 8,157 | 12 | 16,271 | 258 / 258 |
| Kolokuma/Opokuma | PDP | 4,912 | 3,281 | 8,935 | 703 | 17,831 | 148 / 148 |
| Nembe | APC | 3,425 | 1,800 | 2,450 | 18 | 7,693 | 228 / 228 |
| Ogbia | APC | 8,791 | 6,808 | 6,451 | 90 | 22,140 | 301 / 301 |
| Sagbama | PDP | 5,326 | 5,293 | 11,570 | 90 | 22,279 | 244 / 244 |
| Southern Ijaw | PDP | 8,550 | 4,427 | 10,810 | 175 | 23,962 | 466 / 466 |
| Yenagoa | LP | 6,389 | 22,092 | 13,937 | 189 | 42,607 | 427 / 427 |
Largest local rollups
Five LGAs in Bayelsa context
The notes restate the largest local aggregations in prose so their leader, margin and evidence coverage remain legible outside the table. A PU-layer lead is not an official LGA declaration.
- Yenagoa: LP leads the selected four-party rollup with 22,092 votes, 8,155 ahead of PDP. The local total is 42,607 across 427 represented units. The selected source layer represents every polling unit in the inventory.
- Southern Ijaw: PDP leads the selected four-party rollup with 10,810 votes, 2,260 ahead of APC. The local total is 23,962 across 466 represented units. The selected source layer represents every polling unit in the inventory.
- Sagbama: PDP leads the selected four-party rollup with 11,570 votes, 6,244 ahead of APC. The local total is 22,279 across 244 represented units. The selected source layer represents every polling unit in the inventory.
- Ogbia: APC leads the selected four-party rollup with 8,791 votes, 1,983 ahead of LP. The local total is 22,140 across 301 represented units. The selected source layer represents every polling unit in the inventory.
- Kolokuma/Opokuma: PDP leads the selected four-party rollup with 8,935 votes, 4,023 ahead of APC. The local total is 17,831 across 148 represented units. The selected source layer represents every polling unit in the inventory.
Reading the Bayelsa record
One contest, two evidence layers
The canonical PU layer
All 2,244 polling units in the inventory have a selected four-party observation. Representation does not authenticate each observation, restore the other fourteen parties or reproduce later collation decisions.
The LGA evidence directory
Yenagoa has the largest local rollup at 42,607. In Ogbia, APC leads LP by 1,983 in the closest proportional margin.
Coverage needs a denominator. The least complete local record is Brass at 100.0% of its inventory. Cite represented and inventory counts when an LGA has unresolved records. Full representation still does not make the rollup an official declaration.
Questions this page answers
Bayelsa result notes
Who led Bayelsa in the declared result?
PDP led with 68,818 votes. LP followed on 49,975, a margin of 18,843. The four tracked parties total 161,905; that subtotal is not the complete eighteen-party vote.
What does the local pattern show?
APC leads 2, LP leads 1 and PDP leads 5 of the 8 LGA rollups. State-wide, PDP leads the PU layer with 68,428 of 164,752 four-party votes, 18,659 ahead of LP. This does not revise the declared leader.
Why can the declared and PU totals differ?
EC8D is a state collation product. Mundx selects complete four-party PU observations, prioritising CCIJ records and then Mark Essien fallbacks. Scope, availability, transcription and later collation steps can differ. The comparison identifies questions; it does not prove a cause.
How should this page be cited?
Use this permanent URL for the Bayelsa declaration and comparison. Name the layer, year and review date. Cite an LGA place record for a local PU claim, and do not call its PU leader a declared winner without a traceable local collation source.
Provenance
What is official, and what Mundx calculated
The declared layer comes from INEC's result collection and a contemporaneous reproduction of the collation table. It is a collation product, not a sum recreated by Mundx.
Mundx's second layer is a four-party aggregation of selected polling-unit observations. It applies policy all-complete-ccij-first-v1: complete CCIJ records take precedence, then complete Mark Essien records fill remaining units.
- INEC 2023 presidential IReV record.
- State/FCT collation reproduction.
- 176,409 represented units from an inventory of 176,846; 437 remain unresolved nationally.
Canonical PU policy all-complete-ccij-first-v1 · CCIJ commit e38e3bc9a22a
Reuse boundary. Mundx Analytics confirms permission to publish and redistribute the source-derived records in this release. No standard open-data licence or third-party bulk-reuse terms are specified.
Published by Mundx Analytics · reviewed by Mundx Analytics Data Team on 22 September 2026 · official sources retrieved 2026-08-20.