{
  "analysis_date": "2026-09-25",
  "budget_status": "Public INEC proposal presented to the National Assembly; not treated as a final released expenditure.",
  "pvc_correction": {
    "historical_registered_minus_collected": 11228582,
    "historical_gap_share": 0.1336670964711668,
    "treatment": "Not used as the ballot ceiling because PVC collection can continue until shortly before polling."
  },
  "observed_2026_evidence": {
    "elections": "Five bye-elections held on 19 September 2026",
    "manifest_polling_units": 1867,
    "strict_polling_units": 844,
    "strict_coverage": 0.45206213176218535,
    "registered_voters": 417529,
    "ballots_issued": 416818,
    "unused_ballots": 366958,
    "used_ballots": 49860,
    "issued_to_registered_ratio": 0.9982971242716074,
    "unused_share_of_issued": 0.8803794461851455,
    "used_share_of_issued": 0.11962055381485444,
    "warning": "The records are quality-screened but non-random and incomplete; they do not represent every Nigerian election held in 2026."
  },
  "public_2027_budget_proposal": {
    "total_election_budget_ngn": 873778401602.08,
    "ballot_printing_budget_ngn": 37000000000.0,
    "ballot_share_of_total_budget": 0.042344832433669904
  },
  "gross_exposure": {
    "if_observed_unused_rate_applied_to_ballot_budget_ngn": 32574039508.850384,
    "warning": "This is not a savings claim. It applies a non-random bye-election rate to a national budget and includes reserve capacity needed to protect voting rights."
  },
  "recommended_proposal": {
    "name": "60% finished central preprint plus 40% secured late-bound capacity",
    "finished_preprint_share": 0.6,
    "secured_late_bound_capacity_share": 0.4,
    "assumed_quantity_variable_cost_share": 0.7,
    "estimated_gross_saving_ngn": 10360000000.0,
    "estimated_revised_ballot_budget_ngn": 26640000000.0,
    "saving_share_of_ballot_budget": 0.28,
    "saving_share_of_total_election_budget": 0.011856553081427572,
    "rights_condition": "Full entitlement remains available through serialized security substrate, certified late printing, reserve dispatch and automatic poll extension.",
    "implementation_cost_warning": "Gross saving is before the cost of regional secure-print capacity, security controls, drills and audits."
  }
}